Economic numbers worsened in the United States, as the housing crisis is spreading into most of the economic sectors. With stocks struggling to find a bottom and crude challenging important resistance levels, consumer spending might deteriorate further in the near future. At least, until the aggressive measures taken by the Federal Reserve and the Administration will start to produce some tangible results. The European Central Bank (ECB), at the contrary, will probably leave rates unchanged at 4.00% for now, as growth is still supportive and inflation pushing higher.
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In January, existing home sales declined 0.4% (-1.8% expected), as multiple homes slumped 6.5% and single homes rose 0.5%. We are probably experiencing one of the worst deflationary period in history for the housing market. Inventories are at a very high level and they increased 5.5% in January, taking the months of supply to 10.3 months versus December¡¦s 9.7 months. Consequently, home prices fell 2.9% month over month and are now down 4.6% year over year.
money trade etiketine sahip kayıtlar gösteriliyor. Tüm kayıtları göster
money trade etiketine sahip kayıtlar gösteriliyor. Tüm kayıtları göster
8 Mart 2008 Cumartesi
7 Mart 2008 Cuma
How do I get started in Forex?
Do you see the profit potential in trading currencies, but learning to trade just seems too daunting? Have you watched with excitement the recent crashing of the value of the USD, but simply don’t know how to get started trading?
While it is simple to begin trading Forex online, maintaining profitability in the long term is no easy task. You have probably heard that 90% of Forex traders lose their money in the long term. If indeed this is true, it is the result of a couple of different factors.
- Overtrading: Each trade costs you a couple of pips—Consider your trades well before you make them. Each faulty trade, even if exited quickly, drains equity.
- Bad money management: One bad trade can wipe out a year of patient, smart trading. Manage your risk using stop loss orders, so that you never risk too high a percentage of your equity on any one single trade.
- Lack of knowledge: If you have never traded Forex before, educate yourself! Successful traders are not born that way. The difference between success and failure in the Forex market depends in no small part on the knowledge and education of a trader. For the beginning trader, a proper education is essential before investing in the Foreign Exchange. Find a program you are comfortable with, and begin practicing on a demo account.
Trading on the foreign exchange offers unparalleled opportunities for profit, but it is also extremely risky. Make sure you know what you are getting into before you start trading, and start trading only when you are comfortable in your knowledge and ability.
Online Forex Trading
Forex scalping is a trading strategy in which the trader makes dozens or even hundreds of trades daily, looking to capture a few pips per trade. Generally, scalpers stay in trades for less than a minute, bolting as soon as their position captures a few pips.
Brokers do not look kindly upon scalpers, as many times scalpers will exit a position before the dealing desk has time to deal your order. This means that the brokerage has to eat the position—a successful scalper will consistently earn money—money that comes directly from the brokerage’s pocket.
To avoid this conflict of interest between scalpers and the brokerages, scalpers often trade with electronic communication network (ECN) brokerages, which circumvent the dealing desk allowing online traders to trade directly with one another. ECN brokerages usually have less liquidity than traditional dealing desk brokerages and charge a per trade commission, but their pip spreads are narrower.
To be a successful online Forex scalper, traders must follow strict risk management rules. Because the scalper grabs only a couple of pips at a time, one big loss can wipe out dozens and dozens of careful, meticulous trading. Traders should be sure to use stop loss orders, ensuring that the profit/loss margin on each trade is very small.
Brokers do not look kindly upon scalpers, as many times scalpers will exit a position before the dealing desk has time to deal your order. This means that the brokerage has to eat the position—a successful scalper will consistently earn money—money that comes directly from the brokerage’s pocket.
To avoid this conflict of interest between scalpers and the brokerages, scalpers often trade with electronic communication network (ECN) brokerages, which circumvent the dealing desk allowing online traders to trade directly with one another. ECN brokerages usually have less liquidity than traditional dealing desk brokerages and charge a per trade commission, but their pip spreads are narrower.
To be a successful online Forex scalper, traders must follow strict risk management rules. Because the scalper grabs only a couple of pips at a time, one big loss can wipe out dozens and dozens of careful, meticulous trading. Traders should be sure to use stop loss orders, ensuring that the profit/loss margin on each trade is very small.
Whither the dollar? Good Forex
Strong U.S. consumer price data led to a lower than expected federal reserve interest rate cut, causing the strongest one-day dollar rally against the Euro since May, 2005. By the end of the day Friday the 14th, the Euro fell 1.5 percent to 1.4412, the lowest it has been since October. This is the third week in a row that the dollar has rallied against major currencies.
Strong consumer spending reports have served to partially abate worries that the mortgage crisis would force the US economy into a recession, and widespread inflationary concerns would seem to point to a continued conservative approach to interest rate cuts by the feds, which is more good news for the greenback.
Many analysts are now predicting the dollar rally will continue in the short term, fingering 1.43—or even 1.40—as reasonable support levels. Moreover, there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the dollar will rebound in 2008, due to shrinking budget and trade deficits. If we are correct in assuming that the Fed will be conservative in cutting interest rates, this will lead to an increased international appetite for investment in the US market, creating greater demand for the dollar.
On the other hand, we are wary that the dollar rally is simply a correction, rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, we would not be surprised to see another test of the $1.50 level in the short term, even if prospects for the dollar are good in 2008.
Strong consumer spending reports have served to partially abate worries that the mortgage crisis would force the US economy into a recession, and widespread inflationary concerns would seem to point to a continued conservative approach to interest rate cuts by the feds, which is more good news for the greenback.
Many analysts are now predicting the dollar rally will continue in the short term, fingering 1.43—or even 1.40—as reasonable support levels. Moreover, there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the dollar will rebound in 2008, due to shrinking budget and trade deficits. If we are correct in assuming that the Fed will be conservative in cutting interest rates, this will lead to an increased international appetite for investment in the US market, creating greater demand for the dollar.
On the other hand, we are wary that the dollar rally is simply a correction, rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, we would not be surprised to see another test of the $1.50 level in the short term, even if prospects for the dollar are good in 2008.
Whither the dollar? Good Forex
Strong U.S. consumer price data led to a lower than expected federal reserve interest rate cut, causing the strongest one-day dollar rally against the Euro since May, 2005. By the end of the day Friday the 14th, the Euro fell 1.5 percent to 1.4412, the lowest it has been since October. This is the third week in a row that the dollar has rallied against major currencies.
Strong consumer spending reports have served to partially abate worries that the mortgage crisis would force the US economy into a recession, and widespread inflationary concerns would seem to point to a continued conservative approach to interest rate cuts by the feds, which is more good news for the greenback.
Many analysts are now predicting the dollar rally will continue in the short term, fingering 1.43—or even 1.40—as reasonable support levels. Moreover, there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the dollar will rebound in 2008, due to shrinking budget and trade deficits. If we are correct in assuming that the Fed will be conservative in cutting interest rates, this will lead to an increased international appetite for investment in the US market, creating greater demand for the dollar.
On the other hand, we are wary that the dollar rally is simply a correction, rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, we would not be surprised to see another test of the $1.50 level in the short term, even if prospects for the dollar are good in 2008.
Strong consumer spending reports have served to partially abate worries that the mortgage crisis would force the US economy into a recession, and widespread inflationary concerns would seem to point to a continued conservative approach to interest rate cuts by the feds, which is more good news for the greenback.
Many analysts are now predicting the dollar rally will continue in the short term, fingering 1.43—or even 1.40—as reasonable support levels. Moreover, there has been a rising chorus of voices saying that the dollar will rebound in 2008, due to shrinking budget and trade deficits. If we are correct in assuming that the Fed will be conservative in cutting interest rates, this will lead to an increased international appetite for investment in the US market, creating greater demand for the dollar.
On the other hand, we are wary that the dollar rally is simply a correction, rather than a trend reversal. Furthermore, we would not be surprised to see another test of the $1.50 level in the short term, even if prospects for the dollar are good in 2008.
Risks by the foreign exchange on Forex Be Careful
The Forex is essentially risk-bearing. By the evaluation of the grade of a possible risk accounted should be the following kinds of it: exchange rate risk, interest rate risk, and credit risk, country risk.
Exchange rate risk. Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the position will be subject to all the price changes. The most popular measures to cut losses short and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position limit and the loss limit. By the position limitation a maximum amount of a certain currency a trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established. The loss limit is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of stop-loss levels setting.
Interest rate risk. Interest rate risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads, along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward outright, futures, and options (See below). To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the outstanding gaps.
Credit risk. Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk are known:
1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.
2. Settlement risk occurs because of the time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at the different price at different times during the trading day. Australian and New Zealand dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.
Therefore in assessing the credit risk, end users must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios. The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993 are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counterparty. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counterparty. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.
Dictatorship risk. Dictatorship (sovereign) risk refers to the government's interference in the Forex activity. Although theoretically present in all foreign exchange instruments, currency futures are, for all practical purposes, excepted from country risk, because the major currency futures markets are located in the USA. Hence, traders have to realize that kind of the risk and be in state to account possible administrative restrictions.
Exchange rate risk. Exchange rate risk is the effect of the continuous shift in the worldwide market supply and demand balance on an outstanding foreign exchange position. For the period it is outstanding, the position will be subject to all the price changes. The most popular measures to cut losses short and ride profitable positions that losses should be kept within manageable limits are the position limit and the loss limit. By the position limitation a maximum amount of a certain currency a trader is allowed to carry at any single time during the regular trading hours is to be established. The loss limit is a measure designed to avoid unsustainable losses made by traders by means of stop-loss levels setting.
Interest rate risk. Interest rate risk refers to the profit and loss generated by fluctuations in the forward spreads, along with forward amount mismatches and maturity gaps among transactions in the foreign exchange book. This risk is pertinent to currency swaps, forward outright, futures, and options (See below). To minimize interest rate risk, one sets limits on the total size of mismatches. A common approach is to separate the mismatches, based on their maturity dates, into up to six months and past six months. All the transactions are entered in computerized systems in order to calculate the positions for all the dates of the delivery, gains and losses. Continuous analysis of the interest rate environment is necessary to forecast any changes that may impact on the outstanding gaps.
Credit risk. Credit risk refers to the possibility that an outstanding currency position may not be repaid as agreed, due to a voluntary or involuntary action by a counter party. In these cases, trading occurs on regulated exchanges, such as the clearinghouse of Chicago. The following forms of credit risk are known:
1. Replacement risk occurs when counterparties of the failed bank find their books are subjected to the danger not to get refunds from the bank, where appropriate accounts became unbalanced.
2. Settlement risk occurs because of the time zones on different continents. Consequently, currencies may be traded at the different price at different times during the trading day. Australian and New Zealand dollars are credited first, then Japanese yen, followed by the European currencies and ending with the U.S. dollar. Therefore, payment may be made to a party that will declare insolvency (or be declared insolvent) immediately after, but prior to executing its own payments.
Therefore in assessing the credit risk, end users must consider not only the market value of their currency portfolios, but also the potential exposure of these portfolios. The potential exposure may be determined through probability analysis over the time to maturity of the outstanding position. The computerized systems currently available are very useful in implementing credit risk policies. Credit lines are easily monitored. In addition, the matching systems introduced in foreign exchange since April 1993 are used by traders for credit policy implementation as well. Traders input the total line of credit for a specific counterparty. During the trading session, the line of credit is automatically adjusted. If the line is fully used, the system will prevent the trader from further dealing with that counterparty. After maturity, the credit line reverts to its original level.
Dictatorship risk. Dictatorship (sovereign) risk refers to the government's interference in the Forex activity. Although theoretically present in all foreign exchange instruments, currency futures are, for all practical purposes, excepted from country risk, because the major currency futures markets are located in the USA. Hence, traders have to realize that kind of the risk and be in state to account possible administrative restrictions.
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